Central Banks

The European Central Bank meet on Thursday, September 12. A rate cut is widely expected. inflation is nearing 2%, and longer-term forecasts stable around 2% the recent flow of data is showing the economic outlook weakening The meeting will bring updated European Central Bank macroeconomic forecasts downward revisions to inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026…

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate…

Bloomberg (gated) carried info on the note from Morgan Stanley an initial Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut of more than 25 basis points could support the yen would fuel further pulling out of US assets by Japan, ie. “The yen carry-trade unwind may still be a risk factor behind the scenes” “A quick drop…

Headlines on this are here from earlier: The changes proposed for the Board of the RBA have failed Adding a little more detail, this via Reuters reporting: The reforms, which were recommended by an independent review last year, included setting up a separate governance board to complement the current monetary policy board. The nine-member rate-setting…

The key change for the Board of the RBA was the proposal to split the existing RBA board into separate groups for interest rate-setting and governance. The board split was supposed to come into effect on July 1 Australian Treasurer Chalmers was driving the proposed changes but has said he wanted bipartisan support. The measure…

Fed Governor Barr is expected to announce the new measures in a speech on September 10: Fed to halve biggest banks’ capital hike in latest Basel plan FED, FDIC, OCC poised to unveil changes as soon as September 19 Top banks face 9% increase in revised plan from 19% earlier Headlines come via Bloomberg —…

An interesting snippet from Deutsche Bank, expecting 25bp rate cuts ahead, but read on for the “however”. DB say that while Friday’s … payrolls report was disappointing: the data did not rise to the “significant deterioration” Waller noted was needed for larger (50bp) rate cuts. So our economists keep to their expectations for a 25bps…

CNBC refer to a note from Barclays. Analysts at the bank assert that the US jobs markets is “showing no sign of the rapid deterioration that would call for a 50bp Fed cut this month”. The forecast is for FOMC rate cuts of 25bp at the next three meetings: September 17 and 18 November 6…

Former Bank of Canada and Bank of England leader Mark Carney is wading into politics. He’s been rumored to be circling Justin Trudeau’s Liberals for awhile and now he will chair a Liberal Party task force advising the government. He will advise on how to “develop and shape ideas for the next phase of Canada’s…

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 growth rises to 2.5% from 2.1% last. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on September 9, up from 2.1 percent on September 4. After recent releases from the…