The 1.12 level is still key support for the EUR v USD going forward. The resistance comes in ahead of 1.16.
The pair has data beginning at 2pm HKT in the form of German retail sales. Germany’s consumer confidence has improved for a second month in April, but sentiment remains muted due to the current economic headwinds. The recent GfK Consumer Climate survey showed a rise of 3.7 points to -20.6 for May 2025, but still in negative territory.
“The realignment of the US administration’s trade policy has not yet left a sustained mark on German consumers’ mood,” said Rolf Bürkl, consumer expert at NIM. “Instead, the swift resolution of political deadlock at home seems to have reduced a key driver of uncertainty, softening households’ precautionary savings behaviour.”
An improvement in retail sales in the region’s largest economy could boost the euro ahead of the growth data.
The Eurozone GDP growth figures are released at 5pm HKT with economists expecting a 0.2% growth reading like last month. However, a year-on-year dip to 1% annual growth is expected. Evening data for the United States is the ADP employment change number at 8:15pm HKT. The ADP figure is used as a barometer for the main non farm payrolls number on Friday. Job openings in the United States fell during March as President Donald Trump took the axe to the public sector.
US employers posted 7.2 million vacancies in March, down from 7.5 million in February, according to the Labor Department. With that collection of data, the EURUSD exchange rate will turn to the US GDP growth figures on Thursday evening and the NFP on Friday. Traders will look for any clue on the next path for interest rates from the European and US central banks.
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