GBPUSD – Daily Chart
GBPUSD has a key target to the upside at 1.34 but needs to get above the 1.30 level first. The GDP release could give a catalyst for that, or could lead to a correction after a sharp rally in 2025.
The GDP data is released at 3pm HKT and is expected to show a monthly gain of 0.1%, down from 0.4% previously.
A leading UK business group has predicted a “long and challenging year” for the country. The British Chambers of Commerce said higher taxes and a looming global trade war were the causes. It now expects GDP to be just 0.9% higher by the end of 2025, a sharp downgrade from a previous forecast of 1.3%.
The limited growth expected this year will also be driven by higher Government spending rather than a busy private sector, the BCC warned. The BCC added that employers will struggle to invest in 2025, as they struggle to cope with rises in National Insurance tax and the minimum wage.
Another round of tariffs by Donald Trump on products such as steel is another concern for the UK.
John Foster, policy officer at the CBI business group, said: “At a moment in the economic cycle when boosting business confidence and unlocking firms’ capacity for investment holds the key to kick-starting economic growth, the escalating tariff situation in the US remains deeply concerning.”
The coming GDP numbers will be important to see if the UK can shake off the recent gloom and a sharp unwind in the US dollar against global currencies may also be reassessed.
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