GBPAUD Awaits a Double Employment Release

GBPAUD – Daily Chart 

GBP v AUD is hovering above the 2.03 level and that now becomes key support for any further gains. 

The first release comes early at 8:30am HKT with the Aussie employment rate. Markets expect a gain of 30k jobs after 44k last month. The UK releases its own jobs figures at 3pm HKT with traders expecting to see an improvement on last month’s 107k jobs added. 

The UK exchange rate is advancing over the Aussie dollar as traders factor in the tariff situation. Trump’s tariffs threaten Australia’s economic rebound with fears that a coming trade war could increase the nation’s rate of business closures. Australia’s economy is now expected to grow at 2.2% in 2025, according to Westpac bank and the Melbourne Institute. 

That would be an improvement on the 1.3% growth recorded in 2024 and better than the 1.9% figure that was predicted for 2025 by the OECD. 

That would still be slower than Australia’s average growth rate of 2.5-3%, Westpac’s head of macro forecasting Matt Hassan. 

“Importantly, the component detail suggests the improved growth pulse is more fragile than it looks,” he said.  

“Much of the gain reflects a firming in commodity prices and a lower Australian dollar that may now be largely behind us.” 

Those tailwinds may slow, while the tariffs will likely become a significant headwind for economic activity in Australia, Hassan said. 

Businesses are already struggling to pay their trading partners because of tough economic conditions, with CreditorWatch’s February Business Risk Index recording a 47% increase in invoice payment defaults during the last 12 months to February 2025. 

The UK is also struggling and the current government is abandoning its socialist roots by slashing benefits. The Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall has outlined major changes to the benefits system which is aimed at saving £5bn ($6bn) by 2030. The amount of people claiming sickness or disability has risen from 2.8m to 4m across England and Wales since the pandemic. 

The British pound has been rising against the Aussie dollar due to interest rate expectations but the upside may be limited due to the UK’s economic struggles. That is being balanced by the fact that the Australian dollar is more susceptible to US tariffs.