EURCHF Safe Haven Waits for Swiss GDP

EURCHF – Daily Chart 

On a weekly level, the EUR v CHF has hit resistance at 0.95 and may look to test the bottom of the range. It may be an opportunity to sell short rallies in the euro that are not driven by any major catalyst. 

Swiss GDP at 4pm HKT is expected to show a lower 0.2% growth reading for Q4 than the previous quarter’s 0.4%. On an annual level, the figure is expected to be 1.6% against a previous 2%. 

The Swiss franc is always seen as a safe haven due to its location in terms of geopolitics and the country always had a neutral stance on wars. The country is home to many secretive banking accounts and that can keep it free from any attacks. However, the country is far from the current Russia/Ukraine conflict. 

The last two weeks has seen the United States and Europe diverge on Ukraine with a UN vote that failed to blame Russia for the conflict. President Trump has also been aiming to broker peace and left European leaders out of the room. 

Germany’s election of a pro-Nato candidate has also seen criticism lodged at the US  

Friedrich Merz won the latest German election and said the following: 

“I never thought I would have to say something like this on a television program. But after Donald Trump’s statements last week at the latest, it is clear that the Americans, at least this part of the Americans, this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe. For me, the absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we can achieve real independence from the USA step by step”. 

The dynamic of global politics is changing and Britain has vowed this week to increase defense spending as the US pulls away. Even if a peace deal is brokered by the United States, the situation is still unstable and there are repercussions as European countries raise military spending when they are already struggling to balance the books. 

The euro remains subdued against the chf franc and the threat may be to the downside.