The price of NVDA is trading at $131.29 on a quiet trading day after the Memorial holiday in the US. The earnings call comes with two overhead levels in play. If analysts are disappointed, then a correction could come. Either of those events is likely to make-or-break the stock market’s rebound from April.
Nvidia investors will be looking for real answers from management on how much US chip curbs on China exports will cost the company when it reports on Wednesday. A recent pullback in other regulations may also open up new markets.
In a fresh effort to stop Beijing’s access to cutting-edge technology, the Trump administration added export limits to Nvidia’s H20 chip. The company announced that a $5.5 billion impairment charge would be expected.
Nvidia does not break down its sales for the H20 chip, the only product it was allowed to sell to China, which accounted for 13% of its revenue last year.
“The primary question around results and guidance is can Nvidia lift sales enough to offset the loss of H20 or China business,” Wedbush analysts said this week.
The company posted a very positive first quarter of Blackwell sales in its last earnings release and it may be a boost for the company if those sales can cover the China loss.
CEO Jensen Huang recently criticised the country’s wider export controls as a “failure”, saying they had backfired by spurring on Chinese developers. He also sought to soothe investor concerns about Chinese AI firm DeepSeek, which developed a lower-cost rival.
“Trump’s tariffs and trade policies are blotting out many other issues right now, but this one is yet to go away,” AJ Bell analysts said.
“The DeepSeek product challenged the consensus view that AI required more – more chipsets, more computing and server power, and more energy – and AI-related stocks have yet to fully recover their poise. Nvidia did offer fairly cautious guidance for the first quarter, which runs from February to April, but it has had the happy knack of beating estimates for the quarter,” they added.
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