The Nifty 50 Index (INDEXNSE: NIFTY_50) climbed up on Tuesday, reflecting a broader market optimism triggered by Israel-Iran ceasefire news. The Index was up by 1.34% as of this writing, gaining 333 points. An escalation in the Middle East conflict seemed likely after Iran’s retaliatory attacks against US military bases in Qatar earlier on Monday.
However, US President Donald Trump downplayed the attacks, revealing that they had been forewarned by Iran and that no deaths or injuries had resulted from the attacks. Instead, he announced that Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire to start “within hours” on Tuesday.
A de-escalation of the conflict spells good news for equities markets, which had been staring at rising risk aversion. The Nifty 50 Index is currently at its highest level since October 2024 and an RSI of 61 on the daily time frame signals a likely extension of the upside in the near-term.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India’s move to cut interest rates by 50 basis points earlier in June came amidst the rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East and had not been fully priced in. Therefore, a ceasefire could give investors the confidence to go all in, potentially triggering a stronger upside rally. Lower interest rates means a weaker rupee relative to the US dollar, which strengthens the competitiveness of Indian exports.
Nifty 50 Index Prediction
The Nifty 50 Index pivots at 25,150 points and the momentum calls for further upside above that level. The Index will likely meet initial resistance at 25,325 points, but an extended control by the bulls will break above that level and potentially push the index higher to test 25,400 points.
Alternatively, action below 25,150 points will invite the sellers to take control. In that case, primary support is likely to be at 25,050 points. The upside narrative will be invalid below that level. In addition, an extended control by the sellers could send the Index lower to test 24,900 points.
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